Merc/KNTV Poll: A Closer Look

We misprinted the results which were leaked our way as a 44-42 split. The actual results are:

42% - Reed
40% - Chavez
17% - Undecided

In other words, Chuck's lead is within the margin of error. These results starkly contrast the poll released by the Reed campaign in early August. That poll showed Reed earning 47% of the likely votes with Chavez only receiving 20%. This means one of two things: (1) Chuck's earlier poll was juiced as many commentors on this site and others have alleged or (2) Cindy is really building a lot of momentum. We here at MW suspect the truth is somewhere in between these two propositions.

Despite the statistical deadheat, Chuck has to be excited about the fact that he maintains a lead amongst more disciplined, likely voters. A large portion of Cindy's support comes from voters who did not vote in the first mayoral election (a demographic which she leads in 46-33). This demographic is generally less reliable. Cindy's gotta still be feeling the heat.

Though the majority of the electoral dialogue has centered around ethics, that issue still ranks only third in the minds of likely voters in terms of importance. But among voters who believe this is the most important issue Chuck Reed's strategy has paid dividends as he leads 58-30. Upon first glance, one might assume that Cindy's closing of the gap might be due to the affectionately called Chuck E. Cheapskate scandal. However, the fact that those who are voting based upon ethics are still favoring Chuck by an almost 2-1 lead suggests that either: (1) people aren't buying the Cheapskate scandal or (2) people haven't heard about it yet.

One of our favorite (and most talked about) themes here at MW is about Chuck Reed's possible closeted Republicanism. It is therefore worth noting that Chuck's largest block of support amongst demographic groups come from those who identify as "Republicans" and "Conservatives". 58% of Repubs are voting for Chuck and 59% of Conservatives are voting for Chuck.

In any case, the election is hot and close. The final weeks will be intense. We're trying to get you news as fast as possible so please keep sending us emails.